Palladium’s Wild Ride: From $500 to $3,000 — What’s Next?

If you’ve followed palladium’s wild ride from $500 to $3,000 per ounce, you’ve witnessed one of the most explosive — and volatile — bull markets in commodity history. Between 2016 and 2022, palladium didn’t just rise — it skyrocketed, driven by a perfect storm of auto demand, Russian supply fears, and speculative frenzy. But in 2025, the story is changing. Prices have collapsed back to ~$950/oz, and the metal faces existential threats from electric vehicles (EVs), platinum substitution, and slowing global auto production. At Metal Bullion, we’ve tracked palladium’s every twist and turn. In this guide, you’ll learn what drove its historic surge, why it’s correcting, and what’s next for 2025 — so you can decide whether to buy, hold, or avoid.

You’ll discover:

• What caused palladium’s wild ride — from $500 in 2016 to $3,000 in 2022
• Why prices are crashing back to $950 — EV disruption, substitution, Russian supply
• What’s next for palladium in 2025 — forecasts, risks, and potential catalysts
• Top palladium products to consider — 1 oz Palladium Bars, Platinum Maple Leafs (as a hedge)
• How to structure your portfolio — aggressive speculation vs. conservative avoidance

Let’s decode palladium’s wild ride — and what it means for your money.

What Caused Palladium’s Wild Ride? The 2016–2022 Bull Market

Palladium’s surge wasn’t luck — it was a textbook supply-demand imbalance. Here’s what fueled the rocket:

✅ 1. Exploding Auto Demand

Palladium is essential in gasoline catalytic converters — and global car sales boomed from 2016–2019. China’s middle class exploded, U.S. trucks dominated, and diesel scandals (Volkswagen) shifted demand to gasoline — and palladium.

✅ 2. Russian Supply Fears

40% of palladium comes from Russia (Norilsk Nickel). Sanctions, mine accidents, and geopolitical risk created panic buying. Dealers hoarded inventory, driving spot prices higher.

✅ 3. Speculative Frenzy

Hedge funds and retail investors piled in, treating palladium like a meme stock. ETFs like PALL saw record inflows. Momentum chased momentum — pushing prices to irrational levels.

✅ 4. No Substitution — Until Now

Auto manufacturers couldn’t easily switch to platinum — palladium worked better in high-temperature gasoline engines. That changed in 2022 — more on that below.

Result: Palladium rose 500% in 6 years — from $500/oz (2016) to $3,000/oz (March 2022).

Why Palladium Is Crashing — The 2022–2025 Correction

What goes up must come down — especially when fundamentals shift. Here’s why palladium’s wild ride is correcting:

❌ 1. Electric Vehicles (EVs) Are Eating Gasoline Demand

EVs don’t use palladium. As EV adoption hits 25%+ of new car sales in 2025, palladium demand from catalytic converters is peaking — then declining. Tesla, BYD, and legacy automakers are all going electric.

❌ 2. Platinum Substitution Is Real

Platinum is now 10% cheaper than palladium — and equally effective in most catalytic converters. BMW, Toyota, and VW are quietly switching back to platinum. The World Platinum Investment Council estimates 1M+ oz of palladium demand will be lost to substitution by 2026.

❌ 3. Russian Supply Is Flowing

Despite sanctions, Russian palladium is reaching global markets via India, UAE, and Switzerland. Supply is no longer constrained — removing the “fear premium.”

❌ 4. Speculators Are Fleeing

Hedge funds are dumping palladium ETFs. PALL ETF holdings fell 40% in 2023–2024. No momentum = no price support.

Result: Palladium fell 68% from its peak — from $3,000/oz (2022) to $950/oz (2025).

What’s Next for Palladium in 2025? 3 Possible Scenarios

Palladium’s future isn’t binary — it’s a range of possibilities. Here’s what could happen:

🟢 Scenario 1: The Short Squeeze (Bullish — 20% Probability)

Catalyst: Sudden Russian export ban, mine collapse, or Chinese stimulus reviving gasoline car sales.

Price Target: $1,500–$2,000/oz

Who Wins: Aggressive speculators, momentum traders.

Product Pick: 1 oz Palladium Bars — lowest premiums, pure play.

🟡 Scenario 2: The Sideways Grind (Neutral — 50% Probability)

Catalyst: EV adoption slows, platinum substitution plateaus, Russian supply stabilizes.

Price Target: $800–$1,200/oz (trading range)

Who Wins: Patient dollar-cost-averagers, barter-focused preppers.

Product Pick: 1 oz Palladium Bars or fractional sizes (if available).

🔴 Scenario 3: The Structural Decline (Bearish — 30% Probability)

Catalyst: EV adoption accelerates, hydrogen trucks replace diesel, global recession crushes auto sales.

Price Target: $500–$700/oz (back to 2016 levels)

Who Wins: No one — except those who shorted or switched to platinum.

Product Pick: Avoid palladium. Buy 20 x 1 oz Platinum Bars instead.

Top 5 Palladium Products to Consider in 2025 (For the Brave)

1. 1 Oz Palladium Bar
   1 Oz Palladium Bar
   Why: Lowest premiums, pure industrial play. Only for those betting on a supply shock or short squeeze.
2. 1 Ounce Palladium Maple Leaf Coin
   Why: Government-minted, liquid, beautiful. Ideal for collectors who want exposure. (Check Metal Bullion for availability)
3. 1 oz Palladium American Eagle (If Available)
   Why: The only U.S. palladium coin. IRA-eligible, highly collectible. Minting is sporadic — grab when available.
4. 5 oz Palladium Bar
   Why: Lower premium per ounce. For those betting on a supply crunch. (Check Metal Bullion for availability)
5. 1/10 oz Palladium Bar
   Why: Affordable entry point. Great for gifting or micro-stacking. (Check Metal Bullion for availability)

Palladium vs Platinum: The Smart Hedge for 2025

If you believe in palladium’s upside but fear its downside, hedge with platinum. Here’s why:

• Platinum Is Cheaper: $1,050/oz vs. $950/oz — and historically should be more expensive.
• Platinum Has Upside: Hydrogen fuel cells, auto substitution, gold ratio reversion.
• Platinum Is Safer: Lower volatility, structural demand growth.

Pro Strategy: Buy 1 oz palladium + 2 oz platinum. If palladium crashes, platinum rises. If palladium soars, you still win.

Product Pick: 1 oz Palladium Bar + 2 x 1 oz Platinum Bars

How to Buy Palladium Like a Pro in 2025

If you’re going to ride palladium’s wild ride, do it right:

1. Buy Physical — Not Paper: Avoid PALL ETF. Own real metal — bars or coins.
2. Focus on Low Premiums: Bars > coins. 1 oz Palladium Bars offer best value.
3. Dollar-Cost Average: Buy a little each month — don’t try to time the bottom.
4. Store Securely: Use a home safe or private vault. → How to Store Precious Metals
5. Set Stop-Loss Mentally: If palladium falls below $800, consider selling and switching to platinum.

What Experts Say About Palladium’s Wild Ride in 2025

• Sprott Asset Management: “Palladium is a momentum metal. Without auto demand, it’s a falling knife. Catch it only if you’re a pro.”
• Kitco: “The palladium-platinum substitution trade is real. Platinum is the smarter industrial metal in 2025.” (kitco.com)
• World Platinum Investment Council: “Every 1% shift from palladium to platinum removes 200,000 oz of palladium demand. The trend is accelerating.” (platinumgroupmetals.org)

Palladium Wild Ride: Your 2025 Decision Checklist

Before you buy, ask yourself:

• ✅ Am I an aggressive speculator (buy palladium) or conservative investor (avoid or hedge with platinum)?
• ✅ Do I believe in a gasoline car resurgence (bullish) or EV acceleration (bearish)?
• ✅ What’s my time horizon? (Short-term → palladium | Long-term → platinum)
• ✅ Do I understand the volatility? (Palladium can drop 30% in a month)
• ✅ Do I have secure storage? (Home safe or private vault)

Top 3 Palladium Starter Bundles for 2025

1. The Speculative Play:
   10 x 1 oz Palladium Bars + First Amendment Platinum Proof
   Why: High-risk palladium + collectible platinum. For gamblers with a safety net.
2. The Hedged Position:
   5 x 1 oz Palladium Bars + 10 x 1 oz Platinum Bars
   Why: 1:2 palladium/platinum ratio. Profit if palladium rebounds — protected if it crashes.
3. The Fractional Gamble:
   1 oz Palladium Bar + 20 x 1g Valcambi Gold CombiBar
   Why: Micro-palladium speculation + gold for stability. Perfect for learning.

Ready to Ride Palladium’s Wild Ride? Start Here

Don’t gamble blindly. Position with a plan.

👉 Shop Palladium Bars & Coins
→ Start with: 1 oz Palladium Bar

👉 Explore Platinum as a Hedge
→ Start with: 20 x 1 oz Platinum Bars

👉 Browse All PGMs
→ Start with: Multigram Portfolio to sample palladium + platinum

Have questions? Our PGM specialists are standing by at support@metalbullion.store or 1-800-PALL-WILD.