Rhodium Market Outlook 2025: Short Squeeze or Slow Decline?
If you’re wondering about the rhodium market outlook for 2025, you’re staring into the eye of the most volatile, high-stakes commodity on the planet. Rhodium doesn’t trend — it explodes or collapses. After crashing 87% from its $30,000/oz peak in 2021 to $4,000/oz in 2024, rhodium is now trading near $5,000/oz — at a crossroads. Will 2025 bring a violent short squeeze, fueled by supply shocks and new emissions laws? Or a slow, grinding decline as EVs erode auto demand and recycling floods the market? At Metal Bullion, we track every ounce of rhodium flowing from South African mines to Chinese catalytic converters. In this guide, you’ll learn the three possible scenarios for 2025 — and exactly how to position your portfolio for each.
You’ll discover:
- The 3 possible rhodium market outlooks for 2025 — short squeeze (bullish), sideways grind (neutral), slow decline (bearish)
- What’s driving each scenario — supply risks, emissions laws, EV adoption, recycling
- Price targets, catalysts, and timeframes for each outcome
- Top rhodium products to buy — 1 oz PAMP Suisse Bars, 5 oz Bars, Tuvalu Dragon Coins
- How to structure your portfolio — aggressive speculation vs. conservative avoidance
Let’s decode rhodium’s 2025 crossroads — so you can invest with precision.
Rhodium Market Outlook 2025: The Three Possible Scenarios
Rhodium’s future isn’t a straight line — it’s a fork in the road. Here are the three paths:
🟢 Scenario 1: The Short Squeeze (Bullish — 30% Probability)
Catalyst: South African mine strike, Russian export ban, or China’s “National VII” emissions law.
Price Target: $15,000–$30,000/oz by Q4 2025
Why It Could Happen:
- Supply Shock: 80% of rhodium comes from South Africa — where power outages and labor unrest are worsening. A single strike could remove 10–15% of global supply.
- Demand Surge: China’s rumored “National VII” standard (2026) could force automakers to load 30% more rhodium per vehicle.
- Speculative Frenzy: Hedge funds are short rhodium — a supply shock triggers a short squeeze.
Who Wins: Aggressive speculators, momentum traders, physical holders.
Product Pick: 5 oz Rhodium Bar — lowest premium, maximum leverage to price surge.
🟡 Scenario 2: The Sideways Grind (Neutral — 50% Probability)
Catalyst: Stable South African output, moderate emissions laws, steady EV adoption.
Price Target: $4,000–$7,000/oz (trading range)
Why It Could Happen:
- Supply-Demand Balance: Mine output matches auto demand — no shortages, no gluts.
- Recycling Plateaus: Stolen catalytic converter supply dries up — but new recycling tech doesn’t flood market.
- No Speculation: Hedge funds stay on sidelines — no momentum to drive prices.
Who Wins: Patient dollar-cost-averagers, barter-focused preppers, collectors.
Product Pick: 1 oz Rhodium Bar (PAMP Suisse) or 1/10 oz Rhodium Bar — affordable, easy to store.
🔴 Scenario 3: The Slow Decline (Bearish — 20% Probability)
Catalyst: EV adoption accelerates, hydrogen trucks replace diesel, global recession crushes auto sales.
Price Target: $2,000–$4,000/oz (back to 2019 levels)
Why It Could Happen:
- EV Disruption: EVs use zero rhodium. As EVs hit 30%+ of new sales, rhodium demand falls.
- Hydrogen Trucks: Fuel cell trucks (Nikola, Toyota) use platinum — not rhodium — for catalysts.
- Recession: Global auto production falls 10–20% — rhodium demand collapses.
Who Wins: No one — except those who shorted or switched to platinum.
Product Pick: Avoid rhodium. Buy 20 x 1 oz Platinum Bars instead.
What’s Driving the Rhodium Market Outlook in 2025?
Three mega-trends will decide rhodium’s fate:
✅ 1. South African Supply Risk — The Wild Card
80% of rhodium comes from South Africa — where Eskom’s power grid is collapsing. Load-shedding (rolling blackouts) is now daily — mines operate at 50–70% capacity. A single labor strike or government export restriction could remove 5M+ oz from the market — triggering a short squeeze.
✅ 2. Global Emissions Laws — The Demand Driver
New regulations are forcing automakers to use more rhodium:
- China: “National VII” (rumored 2026) — 30% stricter NOx limits
- Europe: “Euro 7” (2027) — 35% lower NOx for gasoline cars
- U.S.: EPA Tier 4 + California ACC II — 75% lower NOx by 2030
Impact: Automakers will need 20–50% more rhodium per vehicle — if supply can’t keep up, prices explode.
✅ 3. EV Adoption & Recycling — The Downside Risks
EVs don’t use rhodium — and recycling is rising:
- EVs: 25% of new car sales in 2025 → 30% by 2027 → rhodium demand peaks then declines.
- Recycling: Stolen catalytic converters flooded market in 2023–2024 — suppressing prices. Supply is now drying up — but new recycling tech could flood market again.
Top 5 Rhodium Products to Consider in 2025 (For the Brave)
- 5 Ounce Rhodium Bar
5 Ounce Rhodium Bar
Why: Lowest premium per ounce. Perfect for short-squeeze bet. Bulk efficiency. - 1 Oz Rhodium Bar (PAMP Suisse)
1 Oz Rhodium Bar (PAMP Suisse)
Why: Sealed assay, globally trusted. Ideal for speculators and collectors. - 1 Oz Rhodium Tuvalu Dragon Coin
1 Oz Rhodium Tuvalu Dragon Coin
Why: Legal tender, limited mintage, beautiful design. Collectible upside if prices surge. - 4 oz Rhodium Bar
4 oz Rhodium Bar
Why: Rare size, bulk discount. For those betting on supply crunch. - 1/10 oz Rhodium Bar
1/10 oz Rhodium Bar
Why: Affordable entry point (~$500). Great for gifting or micro-stacking.
Rhodium vs Platinum: The Smart Hedge for 2025
If you believe in rhodium’s upside but fear its downside, hedge with platinum. Here’s why:
- Platinum Is Cheaper: $1,050/oz vs. $5,000/oz — and equally effective in many catalytic converters.
- Platinum Has Upside: Hydrogen fuel cells, auto substitution, gold ratio reversion.
- Platinum Is Safer: Lower volatility, structural demand growth.
Pro Strategy: Buy 1 oz rhodium + 5 oz platinum. If rhodium crashes, platinum rises. If rhodium soars, you still win.
Product Pick: 1 oz Rhodium Bar + 5 x 1 oz Platinum Bars
How to Buy Rhodium Like a Pro in 2025
If you’re going to ride rhodium’s wild ride, do it right:
- Buy Physical — Not Paper: Avoid RHM ETF. Own real metal — bars or coins.
- Focus on Low Premiums: Bars > coins. 5 oz Bars offer best value.
- Dollar-Cost Average: Buy a little each quarter — don’t try to time the bottom.
- Store Securely: Use a home safe or private vault. → Storing Rhodium: Security & Insurance
- Set Stop-Loss Mentally: If rhodium falls below $3,000, consider selling and switching to platinum.
What Experts Say About Rhodium Market Outlook 2025
- World Platinum Investment Council: “Rhodium’s deficit will widen in 2025 as emissions laws tighten. Prices must rise to ration demand.” (platinumgroupmetals.org)
- Sprott Asset Management: “Rhodium is a momentum metal. Buy only if you see physical shortages — not on hope.”
- Kitco: “The next rhodium move is binary: $30,000 or $3,000. Position for both.” (kitco.com)
Rhodium Market Outlook: Your 2025 Decision Checklist
Before you buy, ask yourself:
- ✅ Am I an aggressive speculator (buy rhodium) or conservative investor (avoid or hedge with platinum)?
- ✅ Do I believe in a supply shock (bullish) or EV acceleration (bearish)?
- ✅ What’s my time horizon? (Short-term → rhodium | Long-term → platinum)
- ✅ Do I understand the volatility? (Rhodium can drop 50% in a month)
- ✅ Do I have secure storage? (Home safe or private vault)
Top 3 Rhodium Starter Bundles for 2025
- The Short Squeeze Bet:
5 oz Rhodium Bar + 10 x 1 oz Platinum Bars
Why: Maximum rhodium leverage + platinum hedge. For gamblers with a safety net. - The Sideways Grind Play:
10 x 1 oz Rhodium Bars + 20 x 1g Valcambi Gold CombiBar
Why: Dollar-cost average rhodium + gold for stability. Perfect for learning. - The Hedged Position:
5 x 1 oz Rhodium Bars + 25 x 1 oz Platinum Bars
Why: 1:5 rhodium/platinum ratio. Profit if rhodium rebounds — protected if it crashes.
Ready to Position for Rhodium’s 2025 Crossroads? Start Here
Don’t gamble blindly. Position with a plan.
👉 Shop Rhodium Bars & Coins
→ Start with: 5 oz Rhodium Bar or 1 oz Rhodium Bar (PAMP Suisse)
👉 Explore Platinum as a Hedge
→ Start with: 20 x 1 oz Platinum Bars
👉 Browse All PGMs
→ Start with: Multigram Portfolio to sample rhodium + platinum
Have questions? Our PGM specialists are standing by at support@metalbullion.store or 1-800-RHOD-2025.









